Weather Forecast for Hull in 2050: Wetter Winters, Drier Summers

Yorkshire and Humber expected fall in summer rainfall based on current carbon dioxide emission levels

Source: UKC PO2 Climate Change Scenarios (funded by Defra, produced by Tyndall and Hadley Centres for UKCIP)

In last month's article, we looked at the greenhouse effect and how the build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is causing temperatures to rise. But what effect will this have for us in Hull; how will it affect the city we live in?
Climate change is happening all the time with small and steady changes to the weather and no sudden differences from one day to the next. The changes might seem tiny, but we can expect an increase in average temperatures of almost 1ºC in the next 20 years and up to 3ºC by 2080; these will have a big impact on the whole of the world, as well as Hull.
So how will the climate changes impact Hull and Yorkshire?
A study was carried out by the UK Climate Impacts Programme in 2002, looking at the latest information on climate change in order to predict what it could mean for people living in Yorkshire. This looked at several possible temperature increases up until 2080, based on the assumption that we carried on releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at the current rate of increase. The predictions would see a very different weather pattern for us in Hull.
The study showed that if we have an increase in temperature of no more than 2ºC by 2050, then we will see an increase of rainfall in winter of up to 15 per cent across the whole of Yorkshire. The map here also shows that during the summer, in Hull and Yorkshire we are likely to see a decrease in rainfall of between 15 and 30 per cent. These predictions suggest that we are likely to see stronger storms in the winter as well as periods of extended, very hot weather in the summer, leading to drought and water shortage.
All in all, climate change is going to lead to big changes in the weather we are used to having. In fact, the changes have already started to happen, with warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers. You can see this happening by the growing seasons, which are increasing by two weeks in our region, and by plants flowering earlier. The 1990s was the warmest decade since records began in 1861 and 1998 was the warmest year.
Over the last two articles, we have seen that the greenhouse effect is being changed by increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and that this change is likely to have dramatic effects for us here in Hull and Yorkshire. But why is carbon dioxide increasing and what is causing it? The articles in the next few months will look at the different things we do that are increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.